Inwazja Putina na Ukrainę doprowadzi do politycznej śmierci Rosji, Trump nie pójdzie na ustępstwa kosztem Ukrainy

observer48

10 sierpnia 2018 o 20:18 Odpowiedz

Dla znających angielski fragment książki George’a Friedmana “The Next 100 years”opublikowanej ponad dziewięć lat temu:

“The collapse of Russia in the early 2020s will leave Eurasia as a whole in chaos. The Russian Federation itself will crack open as Moscow’s grip shatters. Regions, perhaps even the thinly populated Pacific region, will break away, its interests in the Pacific Basin far outweighing its interest in or connection to Russia proper. Chechnya and the other Muslim regions will break off. Karelia, with close ties to Scandinavia, will secede. Such disintegration will not be confined to Russia. Other countries of the former Soviet Union will fragment as well. The burdens imposed by Moscow will be entirely unsustainable. Where previously the collapse of the Soviet Union led to oligarchs controlling the Russian economy, the collapse of the 2020s will lead to regional leaders going their own way.

(…)

From the United States’ point of view, this will represent a superb outcome. The fifth geopolitical imperative for the United States was that no power be in a position to dominate all of Eurasia. With both China and Russia in chaos, the possibility is more distant than ever. There is, in fact, little need for the United States to even involve itself in maintaining the balance
of power inside the region. In the coming decades the balance of power will maintain itself.

Eurasia will become a “poacher’s paradise.” For the countries around the periphery of the region, there will be extraordinary opportunities to poach. The vast region is rich in resources, labor, and expertise. The collapse of central authority will be an opportunity for countries on its periphery to take advantage of the situation. Fear, need, and avarice are the perfect combination of factors that would allow the periphery to try to exploit the center.

Three nations will be in particularly opportune positions for taking advantage of this. First, Japan will be in a position to exploit opportunities in
the Russian maritime region and in eastern China. Second, Turkey will be in a position to press northward into the Caucasus and potentially beyond. Finally, an alliance of Eastern European countries, led by Poland, and including the Baltic states, Hungary, and Romania, together will regard this as an opportunity not only to return to older borders but also to protect themselves
against any future Russian state. A powerful secondary benefit for these countries is this: by increasing their strength, they will be further protecting themselves against their traditional Western enemy, Germany. These
Eastern European countries will be looking at this as an opportunity for redefining the balance of power in the region. India, for all its size, will not be in this game. Geographically isolated by the Himalayas, India will not be able to take serious advantage of the situation.”

Warto też zwrócić uwagę na to, że nie ma tam wzmianki o Ukrainie.

Podaję link do darmowego portalu, gdzie można przeczytać całą książkę. http://www.mysearch.org.uk/website1/pdf/715.2.pdf
Książka jest też dostępna w polskim tłumaczeniu pt. “Następne 100 Lat” https://ksiazki.wp.pl/nastepne-100-lat-prognoza-na-xxi-w-6148759120299649c